Chelsea have had a frustrating season, full of disappointment and lows. Entering the second leg of their last 16 Champions League tie with Borussia Dortmund it’s not looking any brighter. At Signal Iduna Park in the first leg they put up an admirable performance but were edged out by a spectacular goal from Karim Adeyemi that gave Dortmund the 1-0 win. Now, for Chelsea to keep their season alive and keep their hopes for European football next season alive, they need to turn this game around and create an unlikely comeback if they are to salvage a disappointing campaign.
Chelsea have had a tumultuous couple of weeks as they face both the climax of their Champions League campaign and the daunting prospect of being kicked out of Europe’s elite for years. Fans are hoping for a miracle similar to their incredible 2011-12 Champions League final win at Stamford Bridge, as getting past Napoli in the return leg is already proving to be a task too great. If they do not manage to make it through, there will certainly be a ripple effect that could have long-term implications on the development of Chelsea under new owner Todd Boehly. Not only would Chelsea lose out on the financial benefits that come with having access to European football; they also run the risk of losing precious key players and high quality coaches due to their absence from continental play. Last but not least, they could also miss out on scouting and courting potential new musicians and stars by having no means of participating in certain European tournaments. In short, failing to qualify for Europe’s top table this season could cause damage that goes beyond just missing out on one year’s competitive slate – fans everywhere need to cross their fingers and hope for another miraculous night at Stamford Bridge!
In any competition, losing can feel especially brutal if there is even a potential reward of prize money. Such is the case with the upcoming 2023-24 Champions League tournament, where the top teams will be able to get their hands on some much-needed funds. This season alone, each of the 32 teams who qualified for the group stages were given an initial fee of £13.5 million ($16.3m). The amount of money that each team subsequently made was determined by their performance in that stage – with victory bringing in £2.4m ($2.9m) and a draw earning them £802,000 ($968,000). As an example, Chelsea would have accrued nearly £24 million ($29 million) from the group stage if they managed it successfully, illustrating nicely how monetary rewards increase significantly when progressing further into the tournament. Of course, though all clubs competing for these prizes will be fighting hard for success, there will only be one winner come the end of it, who can enjoy all the prowess and luxury that comes with being crowned champions – as well as a nice slice of prize money along with it!
Chelsea recently enjoyed a run of success in Europe, with the club raking in an estimated £120m from their performances in the Champions League, Club World Cup and UEFA Super Cup. Although this has unquestionably been a great achievement for the club, it highlights just how vulnerable they would be if the money tap were to stop. With such a large sum lost from one year to the next, plugging the financial gap would be no simple task. The situation sheds some light on why European club football is so heavily reliant on broadcast rights revenues; though its huge popularity can bring significant financial gains, any dip in performance or source of income could spell disaster for those involved.
Chelsea may be headed for a long period without Champions League football, and this could prove especially costly if it persists longer than expected. This isn’t just because of the EUR10m plus in prize money that the club stands to miss out on. In addition, there’s all the other commitments that would have been fulfilled by being a part of Europe’s premier club competition. That includes matchday revenue from three extra home games, as well as seen clauses in existing sponsorship agreements which are only triggered if the team reach their respective objectives. Finally, there is less of a need to focus on broadcasting revenue now that coefficient shares exist – but still any income from such sources is always welcome these days.
Chelsea were well-positioned to benefit from the new Premier League revenue distribution model for 2021-22. Under this system, clubs who have performed well in the competition over a 10-year period receive a larger slice of the financial pie. This meant that they would have received greater recompense for their stellar 2020-21 season, when they won the competition with authority and cemented their place as one of England’s premier football teams. Unfortunately, their prospects of qualifying for Europe next season look slim as they linger 7 points behind 4th placed West Ham. Such disappointment is only sharpened by the knowledge that clubs who succeed in doing so will be rewarded with increased funding under the new financially incentivized system.
With the team sitting ninth in the Premier League and beset by managerial issues, Chelsea’s dismal on-field performance has unsurprisingly spelt trouble for its sponsors. As part of a mega £120m ($145m) shirt sponsorship deal back in 2020 between Chelsea and telecommunications company Three, the changing of ownership following UK government sanctions upon Roman Abramovich had caused Three to pause their support of the club. Unless there’s a near-miraculous turnaround on the pitch this season, Three are set to end their association with Chelsea as their sponsorship is due to finish at the end of this campaign. Undoubtedly then, Chelsea will be looking for a new shirt sponsor for the start of next season.
Despite being a team lacking the recognition of Champions League football and global presence of giants such as Manchester City, Aston Villa had set their sights high when it came to the signing of lucrative sponsorship deals. Optimistically aiming for an even more audacious deal than the £67.5m-per-year agreement Man City had secured with Etihad, Aston Villa’s ambitions signify their boldness in striving to achieve success off the pitch as much as on it. Unfortunately, without any prestigious accomplishments on the European stage to attract potential sponsors, reaching this level may remain out of reach for now.
Chelsea’s outrageous spending over the past two transfer windows have raised the eyebrows of football fans, as well as the authorities who monitor and impose financial regulations on all major clubs. This is especially due to the stark warning from The Times citing that if Chelsea fails to qualify for Champions League in 2023-24, they would be in a deperate situation with regards to breaking financial fair play rules. It becomes more understandable when we take into account that previous escape from punishment solely came down to allowances granted after Covid-19, what some considered a gentlemenly agreement amongst elite clubs. It is clear now that the Blues are determined to go big this playoff season regardless of costs, and how far they overstep their boundaries may determine their fate in future months.
Chelsea’s transfer strategy this season of signing players to long-term contracts and amortising the fees over multiple years is a risky business. Nevertheless, it has succeeded in reducing some of the danger to the club. Football finance expert Kieran Maguire still has serious concerns however, warning that failure to qualify for the Champions League this season would put Chelsea on UEFA’s watchlist. He calls attention to the club’s huge wage bill which was reported as £333m even before adding in the additional costs from their new arrivals who presumably have hefty salaries too. It remains to be seen if Chelsea will be able to succeed with this risky strategy or not.
Another is Fikayo Tomori, who has been in superb form for AC Milan since arriving on loan in the January transfer window. The 23-year-old centre-back could fetch a healthy fee after his strong start to life with the Serie A side, which would be welcomed by Chelsea given their current financial constraints.
Callum Hudson-Odoi and Reece James also fit the bill as homegrown stars likely to bring in an attractive sum. Both have been integral to Frank Lampard’s side over the past two seasons and are highly rated by Europe’s elite clubs. For both players such a sale would present a chance for them to test themselves and challenge for trophies at a higher level.
Born in Southampton, Callum Hudson-Odoi has burst onto the English footballing landscape with aplomb. Making his debut as a 16-year old, there is no doubt that he had been earmarked for big things. But since Roman Abramovich handed over the reins of Chelsea Football Club to Boris Boehly, Hudson-Odoi’s career has seemingly gone down a different path. Sent out on loan to Bayer Leverkusen this season and not pulling up any trees will surely seal his fate at Chelsea. It may not be the preferred route but club bosses are making sure they get the best possible value for their players, therefore Hudson-Odoi is likely to fetch a handsome fee if he leaves Stamford Bridge in near future. And then there is Ruben Loftus-Cheek; whilst able to provide more stability and productivity than his compatriot of late, it looks as though his time at Chelsea could also be up – much sooner than expected – due to persistent injuries throughout his tenure at the club.
The lack of Champions League football could mean their star players will quickly jump ship. Most recently, Mason Mount has been linked with a move away from Chelsea as he may be unwilling to stay at the club if they don’t make it onto the toughest stage in European soccer. This could start a trend in the dressing room with other members of the squad going it alone in search of European football elsewhere. While this would be beneficial for Chelsea in terms of generating much-needed funds, it would make an already difficult transfer window more tricky for the Blues to handle.
With Bayern Munich unlikely to make Joao Cancelo’s loan move permanent, Pep Guardiola has a clear objective: find a reliable left-back to fit into the Man City line-up and system. Bellingham certainly fits the bill, but Chelsea would have to finish in the top four if they are to stand a chance of persuading him to join them ahead of City. Ben Chilwell was also pursued by City a few years ago, so it remains likely that Guardiola could turn his attention back towards him for this summer’s shopping spree. Now we just have the wait and see what happens in the transfer window!
